It’s been with some sadness that I’ve watched as the crisis unfolds in the Gulf with the oil spill. I lived for many years in Florida, and though we were on the Atlantic side of the state, we often traveled to the Gulf side to enjoy the beaches. For an area just now recovering from Hurricane Katrina, this second punch in the gut will be hard to take.
I can only hope that BP, the oil company that owned the well does the right thing, and offers employment to the fishermen whose livelihood is about to be seriously curtailed for the next year, if not longer.
And while it is a policy of this blog to NOT discuss politics, I’m heartened by the quick and strong response the Obama administration has taken in dealing with the problem.
Doesn’t mean shrimp prices won’t rise this Summer though…LOL. Speaking of shrimp, here’s a meal that I like to put together.
One of my local supermarkets, Schnucks, offers tails on, cooked shrimp marinated with Herb and Garlic. Great stuff and easily added to a meal. I buy a third of a pound to start.
Next, add any of the Green Giant variety of vegetables in their microwavable pouches. These are great for the single person or couple. I am though looking forward to a fresh out of the garden alternative to them this Fall.
Cook it for about 2 minutes, then open the pouch and pour it onto a plate, adding the shrimp. I de-tail the shrimp and cut them up into thirds though I’m sure a real Responsible Survivalist would point out those tails are a good source of some essential vitamin or mineral and leave them on for consumption.
Microwave for another minute and a half.
I added a 1 cup pouch of Uncle Ben’s rice and a pear I had laying around that was getting ripe. Rice is a good staple food and supplies many of your needs. You should add it to your diet now. As prices rise, we all will have to subsitute the more basic food groups currently eaten by those in the Third World like rice, for the steaks and meats we enjoy now.
The pear, well, we should all eat more fruit.
I don’t have the cost breakdown right now but will add it to this post soon.
Enjoy another healthy meal alternative…
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Do you remember where you were when John Glenn rocketed off of the pad in Florida and became the first American in space?
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Toby Heneway has an interesting counter point to Hubbert’s Peak and the doom of a coming apocalypse.
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Sharon talks about poverty making people chose between electricity and food
Saying that, one of the major determinants in my mind that a major change is underway is a change in the Gulf Stream. Even slight changes will have global effects. I truly hope the current forecasts are wrong.
They are probably not and that only scared the crap out of me up until last night. Now having watched a new video and read a DOD report, I’m ready to drink myself into a coma and forget it all, my happy face picking daisies and fresh tomatoes.
I wanted to add to this thread a good video on the possibility of the Gulf Stream collapse that I had seen in the past. A check on Youtube yielded up a different video I had not watch.
(I believe it was released 2005)
The first half of the video is a good over view of the Gulf Stream and how it works. It puts a face on some of the AGW climate scientists and their work that I thought was nice. At least to me the video seemed to refrain from a rabid sense of preaching and stick to the facts.
The last third of the video thought is chilling. Forget about decades of slow climate change and incremental disasters…
How about the scenario where global warming stalls the Gulf Stream and plunges Europe and North America back into an Ice Age in the matter of a few years? Think Siberian temperatures across the Continent. While causing massive drought across Africa and China as the change in ocean currents reduces the typical monsoons so much of SE Asia needs.
Can we say bad?
I realize it’s a slim worse case scenario presented but still, don’t we talk about zombies?
BTW, here is the DOD report put together by the Woods Hole Oceanographic people referenced in the video.
Overview articles about the report:
You may also enjoy the latest CIA estimate, Global Trends 2015 here:
Ghostface In reply:
It’s probably worth discriminating between the Gulf Stream and the AMOC.
The Gulf Stream is a primarily wind-driven current (a Western Boundary current, part of the North Atlantic Gyre) that will be with us pretty much as long as there is an Atlantic ocean basin and the planet keeps spinning.
The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is part of the thermohaline circulation of the global ocean and is what has been implicated in past abrupt climatic changes. The probable cause of its past disruption is massive influx of freshwater, either in the form of ice sheet decay or abrupt glacial meltwater lake drainage.
Collapse of the AMOC is a very low probability event on timescales of a century or two. Much more likely on the timescales we’re predominantly concerned about are either a weakening of the AMOC as it slowly freshens and/or committing it to a collapse down the road.
Bear in mind that comparisons to past AMOC collapse are not all that illuminating when imagining its potential effect on an anthropogenically warmed planet- while significant regional cooling of parts of North America and Western Europe would no doubt occur, this would be taking place against a backdrop of significantly warmed temperatures. There’s virtually no chance of a Day After Tomorrow scenario of plunging the North Atlantic into glacial conditions in the next hundred or so years.
Weakening of the AMOC does have significant implications for regional precipitation and sea level rise, however, that make it a subject of active research and concern for policy makers.
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Ok, so some facts to back up my argument earlier, that it was colder in the past:
The warming climate is making itself felt in the daily weather across the United States, tilting the odds in favor of a daily record high temperature to two-to-one over a record low. In a world without a warming climate, the record daily highs and lows each year would be about even.
In the last decade, as the country experienced unusually mild winters and intense summer heat waves, researchers report, the continental United States set 291,237 record highs and 142,420 record lows. The trend was felt especially in the west.
A detailed analysis of daily temperatures at 1,800 weather stations since 1950, by a team of researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, The Weather Channel and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be published soon in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
“Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” said Gerald Meehl, an NCAR researcher and the lead author of the study. “The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting.”
Statistician Claudia Tebaldi of Climate Central put it this way: “If the climate weren’t changing, you would expect the number of temperature records to diminish significantly over time. As you measure the high and low daily temperatures each year, it normally becomes more difficult to break a record after a number of years. But as the average temperatures continue to rise this century, we will keep setting more record highs.”
The trend has not been a straight line, reflecting changes in average temperatures, which rose in the 1950s, flattened in the 1960s, and began rising with a continuing warming trend that began in the 1970s. Even in the relatively cool year of 2009, the researchers report, record daily highs out-numbered daily record lows by three to two.
“One of the messages of this study is, you still get cold days,” Meehl said. “Winter still comes. Even in a much warmer climate, we’re setting record low minimum temperatures on a few days each year. But the odds are shifting so there’s a much better chance of daily record highs instead of lows.”
“New analysis released today has shown the global temperature rise calculated by the Met Office’s HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming. The study, carried out by ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) with input from the Met Office, performs a new calculation of global temperature rise. This independent analysis is based on information from a wide range of sources. It uses all available surface temperature measurements, together with data from sources such as satellites, radiosondes, ships and buoys.
The new analysis estimates the warming to be higher than that shown from HadCRUT’s more limited direct observations. This is because HadCRUT is sampling regions that have exhibited less change, on average, than the entire globe over this particular period. This provides strong evidence that recent temperature change is at least as large as estimated by HadCRUT. This conclusion is in contrast to a recently released study by the Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) think tank based in Moscow. The IEA’s output is consistent with HadCRUT as they both confirm the global warming signal in this region since 1950, which we see in many other variables and has been consistently attributed to human activities.”
“The lower figure is the ECMWF analysis which uses all available observations, including satellite and weather balloon records, synthesised in a physically- and meteorologically-consistent way, and the upper figure represents the same period from our HadCRUT record. The ECMWF analysis shows that in data-sparse regions such as Russia, Africa and Canada, warming over land is more extreme than in regions sampled by HadCRUT. If we take this into account, the last decade shows a global-mean trend of 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C per decade. We therefore infer with high confidence that the HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming.”
ADDED: Notice something particularly scary. The 2.5 rise over Eastern Canada and Greenland. One of my biggest worries is a complete melt of the Greenland Ice shelf and the resultant collapse of the Gulf Stream. That could signal short term Winter temperature drops of as much as 10 degrees C for Europe, which they are completely unprepared for.
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Adapting to a “hot” world and how to do it, might be best left to another thread, perhaps in the CP&P forum. I’ll just highlight a few things I’m looking at myself, since I’m at the point I doubt anyone will do anything to stop AGW.
First, learn how to grow a successful garden. It’s not a overnight skill. Big plus, it’s healthy. And previous links aside, I don’t think short term AGW, the CO2 will get high enough to make normal garden food toxic. Might be a few percent less nutritious. One of the first things to go, if transportation gets iffy will be fresh produce unless it’s local.
Add to that, learn to can.
Second, learn a few skills that are “handy”. Something that you can do to barter. Then join a barter group. Learn how the economics work when you trade sweat for goods now, that way if you need to stretch your money later, you’ll know how to do it.
Third, it’s not a necessarily “handy” skill, but take a good first aid class. Pretty self explanatory.
Four, begin cutting back on your “energy footprint”. Could you handle energy costs at double the rate, or that is, use half as much energy as you do now. As an example, right now, I have one 40 watt bulb and one 10 watt bulb on, in the entire apartment. All the other lights are out. Wait, I’ve got one of those tiny night lights in the kitchen. Need to replace that with a LED. Unless I really need to I don’t turn on a light anymore.
I’ve also got the furnace turned to 55 but I have one of those oil filled heaters on in the office where I’m at. That room stays warm and at bed time, I’ve got three big heavy blankets on the bed. Once I get under those, I’m comfortable.
I also have cut back on my driving. Combining coming home from work with, stopping at the grocery. Figure I’ve cut about 10-15% of my gas use that way.
Fifth, all the other things we do here at ZS to prep.